UK

Q4 2017

The UK housing market finished the year in modest positive territory, with the main indices suggesting price growth of between 4% and 5%. London’s decline was more material, with the 12-month price change turning negative. Volumes remain buoyant, aided by Government’s flagship Help to Buy programme and the more important – but less celebrated – continuance of record low mortgage rates.

Institutional investment continued its trajectory of growth, with several larger deals in secondary and tertiary towns and cities adding to the total quantum of large-scale rental assets under construction. The overweight of capital against available opportunities is driving greater attention towards joint-venture deals where investors can get access to suitable land and development opportunities. 2017 volumes were up 20% to £2.4 billion, with expectations of continued strong growth this year.

Germany

Q4 2017

The transaction volume for residential properties and portfolios reached €17 billion, which was almost 15% above the previous year’s level, virtually equal to the 5-year average and 40% above the 10-year average. After the standout year of 2015 and the slightly stronger result in 2013, this therefore represented the third-best result in the last 10 years.

In 2017, 83% of transactions were comprised of portfolios with fewer than 2,000 units. As a result of the increasingly smaller lot sizes, the average transaction size continued to decrease when compared with the previous year. On average, just under 300 residential units were traded per transaction. That is only half the average of the last five years.

Berlin stands alone at the top with a transaction volume of €3.6 billion and thus accounts for almost a quarter of the total volume in Germany. Compared with the previous year, the German capital achieved an increase of 25%. Hamburg (€1 billion, +56%), Düsseldorf (€820 million, +112%) and the Ruhr region (€650 million, +21%) follow suit

Sweden

Q4 2017

Total investment volumes for the residential market in 2017 reached SEK 55 billion, which represents a drop from last year’s record breaking number, albeit significantly above the long term average.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, volumes totalled SEK 15 billion due to a number of large transactions. Akelius sold properties in Nynäshamn and Södertälje to D Carnegie in a deal that comprised of 1,400 apartments for a total of SEK 2.5 billion. Over the last two years Akelius have disposed of SEK 16 billion’s worth of assets, in line with their new strategy focusing on Stockholm and Malmö. Municipalities continue to sell in Sweden with two large disposals in Q4. Västerås municipality sold 750 apartments (SEK 765 million) to D Carnegie (Blackstone) and in Gotland the municipality sold 900 apartments (SEK 600 million) to a regional company.

Netherlands

Q4 2017

The number of owner-occupier transactions increased by 8.7% in the final quarter of 2017. A variety of sources however, indicate that the number of transactions is likely to fall in the near future, caused by the limited availability in the most sought after markets. Limited availability in these geographies also weighs on the average transaction price, which increased over the year but has shown a downward trend in recent months.

The investment market on the other hand witnessed a record year, with the total volume exceeding €4.4 billion. Due to increasing competition prime yields sharpened in the final quarter to a historical low level of 3.2% NIY. Large portfolios fuelled the final quarter’s investment volume, while some major transactions have been pushed forward to 2018. Investor demand also remains buoyant, with the first half of 2018 expecting a variety of large scale portfolio transactions to trade. Numerous investors that acquired portfolios 3 to 5 years ago have started to dispose of parts of these portfolios and as a result, investment volumes in the first half of 2018 are expected to remain on par with the 2017 level

France

Q4 2017

More information to follow shortly.